The Obama Black Swan

"Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno"

The term black swan derives from a Latin expression—its oldest known reference comes from the 16th Century English poet Juvenal's characterization of something being "rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno". In English "a rare bird in the lands, very much like a black swan".

When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist in the Old World, only white swans. Then, a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Western Australia in 1697. The importance of the simile lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproved. 

The Black Swan

What we call here a Black Swan Event contains the following three attributes: First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. Black Swan logic makes what you don't know far more relevant than what you do know. Consider that many Black Swans can be caused and exacerbated by their being unexpected.

Obama's Favorite Tool - Black Swan Events

This metaphor can explain almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as "black swans"—undirected and unpredicted. So, it gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks as examples of black swan events.

During the banking, automobile industry, housing crises and their subsequent bail-outs, how many times did you hear Obama cry out, "It's too big too fail!"?  While it's all after the fact, Obama explains why they happened and how to avoid them in the future.

Obama serving up at Thanksgiving.Obama's biggest tool is the Third attribute to concoct explanations for these Black Swan crises to then bypass Congress with executive orders, his foot in the door, the nose under the tent or the way to sneak through the back door to invade, take over and own all the situations in our lives. You see, it is his reason for showing up. Obama is with the Federal Government and he is here to help you whether you asked for it or not.

Guess who is coming to dinner? ...and he invited some of his friends to serve up a head on a platter for you.